samedi 16 octobre 2010

Long Term Arab Strategy?.

If we ask ourselves, what would be in common between the national security of Palestine and that of Mauritania, and we ask ourselves also, what would be in common between the national security of Morocco and that of Oman for instance, it would not be difficult to conclude that a common Arab national security arrangement, is nothing more than an emotional concept based on folkloric aspects, than a real issue based on practical concerns. One is neither criticizing all the proposed efforts aiming at a common Arab national security arrangement, nor reflecting on the countless signed and sealed Arab common defense agreements on the shelves of the Arab League, but rather one is attempting to find a shred of any reason, for the persistence of the myth that there is a real Arab common national security concern.
The fact that the Iranians have proposed a non-aggression pact with the Gulf Arab states, and the preference of those states as well as many others beyond, for security arrangements with the USA, is a blunt indication that the myth of Arab common security concern exists only in the minds of those, whom propagate it constantly. So would that mean, it is the end for this myth?. One certainly hopes so, because unless the Arab people start debunking this myth, we shall find it impossible to get alternative and real proposals for a functional Arab national security order.
However, having said all that, why would any Arab country want to enter into a regional security arrangement with other Arab countries, when an alliance with the USA is actually on offer?. Mind you, it must be said while attempting to answer this particular question under the heightened state of tension between the USA and Iran, that if the USA decides to withdraw militarily for one reason or another, from the Gulf zone, or manages to create a modus vivendi with Iran by reaching an amicable arrangement over the Iranian nuclear programme, what would be the position of the Gulf Arab states having rejected a rapproachement with Iran?. Or what happens if the current political status quo in the Arab Gulf states becomes dispensable for the USA and even not part of its immediate priorities?.
I am sure that, such a question is on the mind of the various Arab leaders, and they must have taken it into consideration when defining the national security policies of their individual Arab countries, but what seems difficult to break, is the mold of Arab strategic short-term thinking. Of course this short-term thinking has always been justified by the criterion that, everything in the Arab world develops very quickly, making it thus difficult for the Arab leaders to develop long-term strategies, and for short-termism to be inevitable. But by the same token, this one and the same, criterion should be a strong enough reason, for the Arab leaders to master the destiny of their own region, for it is after all, the hope of every Arab individual to see Arab leaders plan for the future of Arab generations, and not only for the duration of their own rule. Therefore, common Arab national security concerns cannot be defined essentially, without long-term Arab strategic planning.

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